Preconference Tutorial: Risk Modeling and Optimization using Simulation
Pankaj Dutta
Shailesh J. Mehta School of Management, IIT Bombay
This session introduces you to the risk modeling and simulation
of business problems. After providing a brief concept of various decision
models in management with examples pertaining to different domains, risk
analysis would be carried out in the context of business simulation using
advanced excel spreadsheet. @Risk software would be used to illustrate the
business problems under risk and subsequent statistical analysis would be
drawn to address various real world business problems.
Generally, optimization models ignore uncertainty but Risk optimizer helps
to find risk associated with each strategy; accordingly we can seek out
strategies that will help to minimize risks while achieving desired goals.
It uses the Monte Carlo Simulation, which is one of the widely used
techniques by corporate managers and scientists as an aid for decision
making and performance analysis.