Title: Impacts of Game-Theoretic Activation on Epidemic Spread over Dynamical Networks
Speaker: Dr. Ashish Hota, Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical Engineering, IIT Kharagpur.
Day, Date and Time: Tuesday, 29th Dec 2020, 3 PM to 4 PM (IST)
Abstract:
We investigate the evolution of epidemics over dynamical networks when nodes choose to interact with others in a selfish and decentralized manner. Specifically, we analyze the susceptible-asymptomatic-infected-recovered (SAIR) epidemic in the framework of activity-driven networks where network structure, epidemic states and individual decisions evolve in a comparable time-scale. We first derive both individual and degree-based mean-field approximations of the exact state evolution. We then present a game-theoretic model where nodes choose their activation probabilities in a strategic manner using current state information as feedback, and characterise the quantal response equilibrium (QRE) of the proposed setting. We then consider the activity-driven susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model, characterise equilibrium activation probabilities and analyze epidemic evolution in closed-loop. Our numerical results provide compelling insights into epidemic evolution under game-theoretic activation. Specifically, for the SAIR epidemic, we show that under suitable conditions, the epidemic can persist, as any decrease in infected proportion is counteracted by an increase in activity rates by the nodes. For the SIS epidemic, we show that in regimes where there is an endemic state, the infected proportion could be significantly smaller under game-theoretic activation if the loss upon infection is sufficiently high.
Ref: https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.00445
About the Speaker:
Ashish R. Hota is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kharagpur. He was a postdoctoral researcher at the Automatic Control Laboratory, ETH Zurich in 2018. He received his Ph.D. from Purdue University in 2017, and his B.Tech and M.Tech (dual degree) from Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, in 2012, all in Electrical Engineering. He received the Outstanding Graduate Researcher Award from the College of Engineering, Purdue University in 2017, and the Institute Silver Medal from IIT Kharagpur in 2012. His research interests are in the areas of (i) game theory and behavioural decision theory, (ii) stochastic optimization, control and learning and (iii) resilience and security of network systems.
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